By Daniel Lieberman, Matthias Jonas, Zbigniew Nahorski, Sten Nilsson
Uncertainty research is a key part of nationwide greenhouse gases stock analyses. the problems which are raised by way of the authors during this quantity, and the position that uncertainty research performs in lots of in their arguments and/or proposals, spotlight the significance of such efforts. insurance comprises: bottom-up as opposed to top-down emission stock methods, compliance and verification concerns, and the function of uncertainty in emissions buying and selling schemes.
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Extra info for Accounting for Climate Change: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories - Verification, Compliance, and Trading
Nahorski, Horabik, and Jonas (2007) look at a compliance approach that uses uncertainty estimates for adjusting emissions inventory estimates in both the base year and the commitment year. Fewer allowances are then allocated to Parties with higher uncertainties. In turn, these adjustments imply that trading ratios will vary depending on the uncertainties of the inventories being trading. As in our paper, they do not assert that the market would naturally make these types of adjustment without additional regulatory changes.
Medium-term multi-gas mitigation strategies. Report to IIASA side event at the Conference of Parties (COP10), held on 8 December 2004 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. , & Raes, F. ) (2005). N2O emissions from agriculture. Report EUR 21675 EN of the European Communities, Luxembourg. , & Savolainen, I. (2007). Comparison of uncertainties in different emissions trading schemes (in press). , & Savolainen, I. (2004). Uncertainties in the Finnish greenhouse gas emission inventory. Environmental Science and Policy, 7, 87–98.
To implement this definition, we ask three questions: (1) Would we consider it acceptable if actual emissions exceeded the target emissions commitment by some fractional or percentage amount? (2) How much is that amount? (3) How confident do we want to be in our result? If we assume that we know the magnitude of uncertainty surrounding the inventory estimate (an assumption we revisit later in the paper), this definition suggests that emissions inventory estimates would be adjusted upward to take into account the uncertainty of the estimate.