Download Brocklehurst's Textbook of Geriatric Medicine and by Howard M. Fillit MD, Kenneth Rockwood, Kenneth Woodhouse PDF

By Howard M. Fillit MD, Kenneth Rockwood, Kenneth Woodhouse

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Sample text

Next, we briefly review historical and future inputs to the health dynamics of the elderly population, and then forecast what “old age” will signify in the future. HISTORICAL DETERMINANTS OF THE FUTURE HEALTH OF THE ELDERLY The realized human life span is increasing. 23 The first well-documented achievement of the age of 110 years was in 1932. The first well-documented achievement of the age of 120 years (Jean Marie Calment; who lived over 122 years) was in 1995. S. Hispanic female. , at over twice the earlier rate).

S. Social Security system. In 1982, in addition to payroll tax increases, increases in the Social Security normal retirement age from 65 to 67 were scheduled to occur from 2003 to 2017. Increases in the retirement age to age 70, or even 74, are currently being debated in Britain and Japan. A Japanese study suggested that future economic growth could be compromised by population aging. 6 years for females in 2005. Policy and social responses to population aging depends upon a fourth dynamic—changes in the average health of the elderly.

The largest changes would come from increased proportions of cancer deaths above age 85. For females, cancer mortality would increase relatively more (to about 60% of all deaths) because the adverse effects of menopausal changes in multiple cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are assumed controlled in the projections. CVD risks would decline moderately (from 65% to 50%) for males as a proportion of all deaths, but those deaths would occur at later ages. For females, the projected declines in CVD deaths are much larger.

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